Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 84138.597823 88795.514014 93449.624721 98446.636600 103656.595347 108925.064426 114652.012424
2025-01-05 76641.949575 83787.385827 91126.993117 99219.166509 107880.198106 116861.576311 126868.610840
2025-01-12 70807.219494 79613.682419 88857.855996 99263.596130 110628.890566 122643.525073 136282.815910
2025-01-19 66133.042367 76146.804475 86852.055028 99112.879412 112730.583611 127355.072169 144211.282114
2025-01-26 63610.734065 74746.757398 86838.377983 100891.055289 116719.717904 133943.169810 154045.883139
2025-02-02 61496.995627 73596.853809 86919.440240 102605.625322 120495.107343 140186.774897 163423.987020
2025-02-09 59108.363839 71961.186030 86298.237306 103384.066117 123094.392227 145021.103840 171156.312135
2025-02-16 56448.696533 69859.695741 85006.246534 103264.760975 124556.754924 148479.232811 177261.208985
2025-02-23 54426.313434 68391.572358 84346.561258 103783.725400 126675.839189 152630.043432 184122.870612
2025-03-02 52340.577981 66746.315920 83387.833164 103867.442820 128216.169567 156060.065148 190118.252548
2025-03-09 51081.738753 66026.099822 83465.454823 105125.236481 131098.241596 161030.585703 197908.387819
2025-03-16 49014.986335 64239.498222 82191.011216 104697.086827 131920.306774 163540.302762 202781.651588
2025-03-23 48062.145032 63808.562403 82554.965011 106262.136967 135168.113949 168984.557040 211231.256942
2025-03-30 46849.062771 63009.025567 82434.044170 107212.593459 137665.473469 173545.607798 218664.905428
2025-04-06 45279.715543 61702.903402 81637.486235 107288.054861 139064.187700 176769.897410 224494.796663
2025-04-13 43696.093989 60320.830093 80694.278457 107133.743141 140142.124937 179581.035815 229815.864849
2025-04-20 43176.741220 60276.247188 81405.723084 109028.059198 143743.301928 185466.809061 238898.402650
2025-04-27 42662.101971 60211.516475 82071.947873 110853.241564 147257.733833 191260.151080 247901.676001
2025-05-04 41729.762045 59566.043994 81969.322041 111681.711756 149512.296697 195504.603396 255020.507539
2025-05-11 40425.132031 58387.319638 81144.298061 111554.768365 150537.898507 198214.844972 260244.900607
2025-05-18 39478.191511 57653.310566 80866.887075 112107.011375 152407.218043 201968.150794 266772.203639
2025-05-25 38381.925098 56684.342532 80252.476933 112196.094244 153666.080283 204948.934276 272340.186034
2025-06-01 37851.801024 56463.775853 80605.769052 113534.386373 156523.819101 209946.250867 280458.500779